Does concern about falling predict future falls in older adults? A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: The 2022 World Falls Guidelines recommend assessing concerns (or ‘fears’) about falling in multifactorial fall risk assessments. However, the evidence base for this recommendation is limited. This review evaluated the evidence for concerns about falling as an independent predictor of future falls, applying the Bradford Hill criteria for causality. Methods: Systematic review and meta-analyses were conducted (PROSPERO registration ID: CRD42023387212). MEDLINE, CINAHL Plus, Web of Science and PsycINFO were searched for studies examining associations between baseline concerns about falling and future falls in older adults (minimum 6-month follow-up). Meta-analyses examined associations between concerns about falling and future falls. Risk of bias was assessed using an adapted Newcastle Ottawa Scale for cohort studies, and evidence certainty was rated with GRADE. Results: About 53 studies, comprising 75,076 participants, were included. Meta-analysis showed significant independent association between baseline concerns and future falls when using the Falls Efficacy Scale-International to assess concerns (full scale version, pooled OR = 1.03 [95% CI = 1.02–1.05] per 1-point increase; short scale version, pooled OR = 1.08 [95% CI = 1.05–1.11]). Significant associations were also observed when using single-item measures of concerns (pooled OR = 1.60 [95% CI = 1.36–1.89] for high vs. low concerns). In contrast, balance confidence (Activities-Specific Balance Confidence Scale) did not predict future falls (pooled OR = 0.97 [95% CI = 0.93–1.01]). Despite 26 studies rated as poor quality, associations were consistent across studies of different quality. The overall certainty of the evidence was rated as moderate. Conclusions: Baseline concern about falling is a clear predictor of future falls in older adults, supporting its inclusion in fall risk assessments. Regular assessment of concerns about falling, along with targeted interventions, could help reduce the risk of falls in older adults.